Market Watch September 2026
Happy autumn!
🏡 WATERLOO REGION MARKET WATCH | SEPTEMBER 2026
The fall real estate market is taking shape, and September’s numbers suggest we’re seeing a market that continues to adjust rather than move decisively in one direction.
Across the Waterloo Region market area, 1,171 homes sold in September, down 8.2% from August and 18.9% year over year.
One notable change was an increase in new listings compared with August, giving buyers more properties to consider as we entered the fall market. However, new listings were still 18.8% lower than a year ago.
Prices, meanwhile, remained relatively steady month-over-month, and months of supply was unchanged from September 2025.
Waterloo Region has a tight supply at 3.8 months even though new listings increased.
What does this mean for buyers and sellers?
The headline numbers only tell part of the story. Conditions can vary considerably between communities and even between neighbourhoods and property types within the same city.
For buyers, increased fall inventory may create more choice and negotiating opportunities, but well priced homes can still attract attention meaning competing offers.
For sellers, today’s market continues to reward good preparation, presentation and, particularly, realistic pricing. Buyers have choices, which makes understanding the competition around your property increasingly important.
I’ve been cautious about putting too much weight on August numbers because summer activity can distort the picture. As can December and January. September gives us a better indication of the direction of the fall market and it reinforces something I’ve been saying for some time: micro-markets matter.
If you’re considering buying or selling, don’t make your decision based solely on a regional headline. Let’s look at what’s actually happening in your neighbourhood, price range and property type.
The regional market tells us the trend.
The micro market tells us the strategy.
Understanding both can help buyers and sellers make informed decisions and move forward with confidence. Reach out now for expert insights..
The sales to new listing ratio for September is 33.5% indicating a market getting closer to a buyer’s market. A balanced market is considered by the BOC to be between 40% and 60%. Having said the thought the tight supply is in favour of a sellers market.
Average days on market is 33 days. It’s important to note this number reflects only homes that actually sold and not the homes that didn’t or are still on the market.
Average sale to list price ratio is 98.6%.
Buy smart & sell strong. Let’s talk about your next move.
By the way, your referrals are the best compliment you can give. All sales through your referrals to me will see a portion of my commission donated to The Humane Society of Kitchener Waterloo Stratford Perth.
Sell and move forward with confidence!
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Thanks for reading!
Lance
ALL STATS FROM THE CORNERSTONE ITSO MLS SYSTEM
Toronto & GTA Market Update September 2026
September saw GTA buyers remain cautious as uncertainty around the economy, inflation and borrowing costs continued to weigh on the housing market.
A total of 5,040 homes sold across the GTA, down 9.0% from September 2025. At the same time, 16,500 new listings came to market, a larger 14.4% year-over-year decline. Both sales and new listings also declined from August on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Prices continued to adjust. The average selling price was $1,006,409, down 5.1% year-over-year, while the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark declined 4.7%. Despite the average price moving back above $1 million after dipping below that level in August, seasonally adjusted prices edged slightly lower month-over-month.
The interesting part of September’s numbers is that new listings are falling faster than sales. Active inventory was also approximately 9% lower than a year ago. That means buyers continue to have negotiating power in many parts of the GTA, but the supply of available homes is no longer expanding the way it was earlier in the market cycle.
There also continues to be significant variation depending on location and property type. GTA wide statistics provide the overall trend, but they don’t necessarily describe what is happening in a particular neighbourhood or price range.
The takeaway: September confirms that buyer caution remains a major factor in the GTA market. Prices are lower than a year ago and buyers generally have more negotiating room, but declining inventory is worth watching. If economic confidence improves and buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines begin returning to the market, that supply-demand balance could change.
As always, the headline numbers tell us the direction of the market — but the micro-market is what matters when you’re making a real estate decision..
Buy smart & sell strong. Let’s talk about your next move.
Reach out with any of your Toronto market questions.
ALL STATS FROM TORONTO REGIONAL REAL ESTATE BOARD
LOVING LOCAL!
Together For Care Community in Action
This year’s Together For Care Fashion Show Dinner was an example of what can happen when a community comes together around a shared purpose.
The event raised an incredible $60,000 in support of Waterloo Region Health Network and the new hospital, bringing together local businesses, sponsors, volunteers and guests for a memorable evening.
I was proud to be part of the organizing committee, a sponsor, and to contribute some of my video work to help tell the story and showcase several of the local businesses involved.
This is what Loving Local is really about people using their time, talents and resources to strengthen the community we all share.
Congratulations to everyone who helped make Together For Care such a success. Stay tuned for 2027!
The Together For Care team below!
New Listing in the Sandhills Community.
Looking to right size for your next chapter or know of someone that is. Sandhills is a great 50+ community in the heart of Downtown Kitchener. Steps away from many amenities. Reach out to me today for your private showing.
Looking to make a move? Have questions? I help people buy and sell homes with confidence so they can move onto the next chapter. Contact me now.
Sell and move forward with confidence!
Lance Nielsen
519-748-7057
Lance@LanceNielsen.com
LANCE IS A MEMBER OF BOTH THE CORNERSTONE ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS & THE TORONTO REGIONAL REAL ESTATE BOARD
