Market Watch January 2025
I hope your first month of 2025 has going well. Lots of rapid changes on the landscape!
The Waterloo Region housing market showed mixed signals in January 2025. Home sales decreased 12% compared to January 2024, with 329 total units sold. With 901 homes coming onto the market in January this puts the sales to new listing ratio (SNLR) at just over 36%, indicating a buyer’s market. However moving into spring a balanced market will likely emerge as signs indicate modest sale and average price increases.
In January the average residential property price was $755,859 (down 1.0% year-over-year).
New listings at 901 (up 25% year-over-year)
Active listings: 1,296 (up 49.5% year-over-year)
Average days on market: 33 days
The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate to 3% on January 29, 2025, making variable rates more affordable. Recent mortgage reforms have also made it easier to qualify for mortgages, including increased insured mortgage caps and 30-year amortization options for first-time buyers and new builds.
However, market uncertainty remains due to potential trade tensions with the U.S., and our own unknown political landscape developments.
The market currently has 2.3 months of inventory supply, with varying levels across property types:
– Condominiums: 5.1 months supply
– Townhouses: 3.5 months supply
– Single Detached: 1.5
January was a busy month for me reaching the Royal Lepage Wolle Realty Achievers of the month list.
Among other things I attended the Waterloo Region RLP kick off event where I had the opportunity to chat with CEO & President of RLP Canada, Phil Soper about new RLP technologies. Phil appears regularly on news channels such as BNN.
If you are looking to buy or sell and are looking for strategy options, contact me now! Sell and move forward with confidence!
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Below are January’s Market Board Reports for Waterloo Region and the GTA.
Enjoy!
Lance
WATERLOO REGION HOUSING MARKET STARTS 2025 WITH HIGHER INVENTORY, SOFTER SALES.
WATERLOO REGION, ON (February 5, 2025) —In January, a total of 329 homes were sold in the Waterloo Region via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System of the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® (Cornerstone). This represents a 12.0 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year and a decline of 18.6 per cent compared to the average number of homes sold in the previous ten years for the same month.
“The Waterloo Region’s housing market shows promising dynamics as we begin 2025. With nearly 50 percent more active listings compared to last January and inventory levels well above the ten-year average, we’re seeing more choice for buyers in the market,” said Christal Moura, spokesperson for the Waterloo Region market. While sales have softened compared to last year, the increased inventory levels are creating more balanced conditions between buyers and sellers.
Total residential sales in January included 188 detached homes (down 10.5 per cent from January 2024), and 81 townhouses (down 8.0 per cent). Sales also included 39 condominium units (down 30.4 per cent) and 21 semi-detached homes (up 5.0 per cent).
In January, the average sale price for all residential properties in Waterloo Region was $755,859. This represents a 1.0 per cent decrease compared to January 2024 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2024.
- The average price of a detached home was $882,941. This represents a 3.1 per cent decrease from January 2024 and a decrease of 1.2 per cent compared to December 2024.
- The average sale price for a townhouse was $630,116. This represents a 1.1 per cent decrease from January 2024 and an increase of 0.1 per cent compared to December 2024.
- The average sale price for an apartment-style condominium was $469,623. This represents a 4.6 per cent increase from January 2024 and a decrease of 1.2 per cent compared to December 2024.
- The average sale price for a semi was $634,762. This represents a decrease of 1.9 per cent compared to January 2024 and a decrease of 1.6 per cent compared to December 2024.
“In an expected move, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3 per cent on January 29, 2025, helping to bring down the cost of borrowing. This reduction was welcome news for potential home buyers,” says Moura. “However, with a potential trade war with the U.S. still looming, it’s difficult to predict what will happen when the Bank makes its next interest rate announcement on March 12.”
While the current economic uncertainty might make some house hunters hesitant, Moura highlights the new mortgage reforms that took effect in December. These changes make it easier to qualify for a mortgage with a down payment of less than 20 percent. Additionally, the insured mortgage cap increased from $1 million to $1.5 million, and all first-time buyers and those purchasing new builds will be eligible for 30-year amortizations, which will help reduce monthly payments.
There were 901 new listings added to the MLS® System in Waterloo Region last month, an increase of 25.0 per cent compared to January last year and a 27.6 per cent increase compared to the previous ten-year average for January.
The total number of homes available for sale in active status at the end of January was 1,296 an increase of 49.5 per cent compared to January of last year and 71.5 per cent above the previous ten-year average of 992 listings for January.
The total inventory across the market increased by 43.8 percent, resulting in a 2.3-month supply of all property types by the end of January. Condominium apartments had the highest inventory, with 5.1 months’ supply, followed by townhouses with 3.5 months’ supply and detached homes with 1.5 months’ supply. The number of months of inventory represents the time it would take to sell off current inventories at the current sales rate.
The average time to sell a home in January was 33 days, compared to 37 days in the previous month. In January 2024, it took 32 days for a home to sell, and the five-year average was 21 days.
TRREB: GTA HOME SALES & AVERAGE PRICE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MODERATELY IN 2025
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) Market Outlook and Year in Review report reveals that a well-supplied housing market will keep average annual home price growth at the rate inflation, with the average selling price increasing moderately in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) over the course of the year.
This year’s sought-after report and interactive digital digest includes new Ipsos consumer polling results, home buying and selling intentions, and TRREB’s outlook on home sales and average price.
“A growing number of home buyers will take advantage of lower borrowing costs as we move toward the 2025 spring market, resulting in increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices in 2025. However, the positive impact of lower mortgage rates could be reduced, at least temporarily, by the negative impact of trade disruptions on the economy and consumer confidence,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
The 2025 Outlook
For 2025, TRREB forecasts:
- A total of 76,000 home sales in 2025, up by 12.4 per cent over 2024. Lower borrowing costs coupled with ample supply will improve affordability and prompt more buyers to move off the sidelines.
- The average selling price to reach $1,147,000, up by 2.6 per cent over 2024, for all home types combined. Price growth will be stronger for single-family homes, as compared to the well-supplied condo apartment market.
The Ipsos polling results on buying and selling intentions show:
- 28 per cent of survey respondents said they are likely to buy a home in 2025. Nine per cent of these respondents are very likely to purchase a home this year. These results matched intentions for 2024.
- First-time buyers accounted for 42 per cent of intending home buyers.
- On average, homeowners rented for 8.5 years before purchasing their first home. However, 25 per cent of homeowners said they rented for two years or less before buying.
- Intended down payments remain substantial, at an average of 28 per cent of the purchase price.
- 37 per cent of survey respondents said they are likely to sell a home in 2025, with 14 per cent very likely to sell. This result was in line with 2024 polling.
- The great majority of poll respondents said that high taxes are making home ownership less affordable and if taxes continue to increase many will have to adjust their home buying intentions.
“As we look to the future, prioritizing housing diversity and supply remains paramount. Encouraging the development of missing-middle housing—such as town homes, duplexes, and low-rise multi-unit buildings—is critical to delivering a range of attainable options for individuals and families. Purpose-built rentals also play a vital role in ensuring everyone has access to a place they can call home,” said TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule.
The report also unveils new research on traffic congestion and its staggering societal and economic impact on GTA residents. In addition, solutions to reduce the Landlord and Tenant Board backlog are presented alongside policy recommendations aimed at addressing issues within Ontario’s tax, development charge and municipal funding frameworks.
“At TRREB, we believe the solution starts with collaboration. Traffic congestion and affordability are interconnected challenges that require integrated approaches. The current system of high development charges, taxes, and administrative hurdles only exacerbates the issues. This stalls progress on building the housing supply we need to support our growing communities,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.
The 2025 Market Outlook and Year in Review report covers all aspects of the GTA real estate market including trends for new homes and condos and a look at the commercial market..
If you are considering buying or selling, contact me anytime to answer your questions, big or small. Call now!
Problem solver in the real estate market.
Sell and move forward with confidence!
Lance Nielsen
519-748-7057
Lance@LanceNielsen.com
